Avian Flu Is Over. So Why Are You Still Paying $5.99 a Dozen... and $4,500 a Month?
PROLOGUE:
Who writes a prologue to an article about mortgages and chicken prices?
Well, I guess I do. ????
I just finished reading — and rereading — what you're about to dive into. I’ll admit, this piece veers off the path of the usual articles you've come to expect from me. I typically explore economics and the mortgage industry from the point of view of someone who works in finance (which I do). This time, I still wear my finance hat, but I’m also standing in the grocery store aisle with a shopping cart.
Instead of talking about rate and home price trends, I’m flipping the script and looking at the other side of the affordability equation: household income. And I attempt to do it without leaning red or blue.
Enjoy the ride.
Chicken or the Egg? I Have the Answer — and What That Means for Your Mortgage.
Last week, I stopped by Safeway and WINCO for some grocery shopping. In the refrigerated section, I noticed something that made me stop in my tracks: both stores still had signs in the egg cooler apologizing for the “temporary” inconvenience and price increase on eggs.
Did you know the avian flu outbreak started in late 2022 and ended in 2023? That means we’re now a year and a half into a world with healthy egg-laying hens happily clucking away on Old McDonald’s farm. So… what gives?
Because I’m me, I looked up the nation’s egg-laying chicken population (yes, the USDA tracks this — and yes, I read it: link to USDA report).
It takes about 30 weeks for a chick to grow into a productive egg layer. So, by now, the population should have fully recovered. And yet, the USDA report shows the egg-laying population is still down by 1%.
There’s clearly still a shortage. But it’s no longer due to avian flu.
Let’s talk about Tyson Foods — the largest company that raises egg-laying chickens. Curiously, when I checked their stock performance, I found something unexpected: in 2024, Tyson paid out its highest dividend in well over a decade. And that dividend has been inching up year after year.
So... why are stockholders getting richer while we’re still paying more during a “chicken shortage”?
Because Tyson Foods has realized that it can make more money selling fewer eggs at higher prices.
Let me show you the math:
At a $5.99 retail price per dozen and a 37% profit margin, Tyson makes about $4.43 in profit from selling two dozen eggs.
To generate that same $4.43 profit at the old $1.99 price, Tyson would have to sell six dozen eggs.
See the game? Limit supply, raise prices, and the profits roll in.
Angry yet? Think this is a one-off?
Well, yesterday I received an economic report from the Wells Fargo group I’m part of: link to Wells Fargo report.
It showed that corporate profits just hit 12.8% of national income — one of the highest levels in modern U.S. history.
Let’s put that in human terms.
If the economy were a potluck dinner, corporations are showing up empty-handed and walking out with a full plate and a to-go container. That might be fine if everyone else were eating well too — but employees are back in the kitchen, scraping together side dishes and trying to figure out who moved the dessert table.
In more technical terms: corporate profit margins have nearly doubled since 2000 — from around 7% of national income to nearly 13% today.
It’s tempting to point fingers — at Trump, Biden, Obama, whomever. But this isn’t a one-time spike. This trend has continued across all administrations. Recessions and global disruptions may slow it temporarily, but the pattern continues.
At first glance, this might look like a business success story. But it’s not the kind that lifts everyone. For many Americans — especially those trying to buy a home, raise a family, or save for the future — it feels like someone else is rewriting the rules.
So what’s actually happening?
Over the past two decades, we’ve built an economy that increasingly rewards shareholders over workers, capital over labor, and scale over community. Technology, globalization, low interest rates, and market consolidation all played a role. But the result is clear: profits surge while real wages lag behind.
I promise — I’m not a liberal hippie or out here feeling the “Bern” with Senator Sanders. Yes, inflation has cooled a bit recently. But affordability hasn’t. Why? Because incomes haven’t kept up with costs — especially housing costs.
As someone who helps families navigate the mortgage process every day, I see this disconnect up close.
Let’s talk about home affordability:
Monthly mortgage payments have nearly doubled over the past few years due to rising home prices and higher interest rates.
Meanwhile, median household income hasn’t doubled. In fact, in many cases, it hasn’t even kept up with inflation. So buyers are stretching every dollar, leaning on family gifts, racking up credit card debt, or sitting on the sidelines waiting for a market correction that may never come.
All the while, corporations are booking record profits — using those profits to buy back shares, boost executive compensation (paging Mr. Musk to the DOGE office…), and increase dividends.
That might please investors, but it’s not helping the average American afford a starter home.
Yes, rising prices are a root cause of inflation. But let’s not ignore the other half of the picture. The Federal Reserve and Chairman Powell might need to revisit policies around bank and corporate lending, not just interest rates and tariffs.
The markets are hoping for a rate drop. That will help everything from mortgage payments to credit card bills. But solving the affordability crisis will require something bigger: addressing how much of the economy’s income is going to corporations instead of households.
This is bigger than housing.
When profits take up more of the national income, less is left for wages, benefits, training, and hiring.
It’s a system where the rising tide lifts the yachts… while Tom Sawyer’s raft remains beached.
We’re not just in an affordability crisis — we’re in a distribution crisis. There’s money in the system. A lot of it. But it’s flowing to the top faster than ever.
So what do we do?
I’m not anti-profit. I’m a business owner. I run a for-profit organization. I believe in growth, innovation, and free enterprise. But I also believe in balance.
Because when an economy gets too lopsided, it stops working for the people who keep it running. That’s what can tip us into a recession — and away from Powell’s coveted “soft landing.”
Here’s what realignment could look like:
- Tax policy that encourages reinvestment, not just extraction.
If a corporation wants a tax break, let it earn it — by investing in its people, its community, or long-term innovation. Not just by buying back stock. - Force competition, not consolidation.
Too many industries are now controlled by a few players. That’s bad for pricing, bad for workers, and bad for innovation.
(Just ask the egg aisle.)
As a Wholesale Mortgage Broker, I live by the value of competition — I don’t work with one lender. I shop 110 different lenders for my clients. Competition delivers lower prices. I see it literally everyday when I look at pricing from different lenders. - Transparency and accountability.
Require companies to report meaningful wage and pay ratio data. When people know where the money is going, they can make better decisions — and demand better outcomes.
Back to mortgages for a second...
The headlines aren’t wrong: first-time homebuyers are struggling to afford the "average" house.
But it’s not just about interest rates or low inventory. It’s about who has the money to compete.
I’ve written plenty about rates and home prices. But affordability has two sides: price and income.
When one part of the economy is vacuuming up income at record levels, there’s less left for everyone else. That shows up in people’s ability to qualify for loans, make down payments, and keep up with rising property taxes and insurance.
Red or blue, we need to stop pretending record profits automatically mean a strong economy.
The scoreboard might look great from 10,000 feet.
But down on the ground? Consumer confidence is at its lowest point since the pandemic.
Let’s fix the balance.
* Specific loan program availability and requirements may vary. Please get in touch with your mortgage advisor for more information.